An editorial published in The Lancet comments on the current increase in world food prices and what we need to do to stop it.
“While customers at restaurants in New York City will soon be able to count the calories of their meals in an attempt to curb the obesity epidemic,” states the Editorial, “people in New Delhi are currently counting the grains of their rice. From Bolivia to Yemen, people around the world are taking to the streets in protest at the spiraling increases in food prices.”
In the past year, the world has seen a 130% increase in the price of wheat and a 120% increase in the price of rice. This has resulted in more people being pushed into severe poverty and the potential starvation of millions of people. Although the first Millennium Development Goal mandates a halving of the number of people who suffer from hunger, current world food prices are actually causing the opposite to occur.
There are several reasons for this current food crisis. World population is increasing, and although the rate of increase in declining, by 2050 demographers expect the world to house three billion more people than today. Also, people in emerging economies are eating more – and eating more meat. To produce 1 kg of meat, it can require 9 kg of grain. This results in an increase in crop demand, but there is a reduction in supply as crop yields have significantly fallen in the last ten years. Further compounding the problem is the disastrous US housing market. Investors have been selecting lower-risk commodities such as food, leading to a “commodities super-cycle” – food inflation seeds further price increases. Following a decades-old tradition, rich countries still subsidize produce and sell it cheaply in the markets of poor countries – making it impossible for local farmers to compete.
In light of all these issues, the Editorial claims that policies regarding biofuels are significantly contributing to food price increase. “In the drive to make the USA self-sustaining for fuel production, massive ethanol subsidies and millions of acres of American corn have led to a boom in biofuels. American cars now burn enough corn to cover the import needs of 82 food-deficit countries. But thanks to a backlash against biofuels in Europe, the European Union, once committed to a 10% biofuel target by 2020, is sensibly rethinking its position.”
Although important political entities and leaders – such as UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the United Nations, and the World Bank – have indicated a desire to stop or limit this food crisis, the Editorial cautions that disjointed efforts that focus on short-term solutions (such as more humanitarian aid) will not address the core issues: “For example, the USA and France, among the first to announce their increase in food aid donations, have directly contributed to the crisis by repeatedly failing to stand up to their own farmers by abolishing agricultural subsidies.”
“Food is a complex political issue and quick fixes are not enough. Without a long-term plan that takes a bold stand against ethanol subsidies, the use of biofuels, and the trade distortions that have contributed to crisis, any action will just be a temporary sticking plaster. Continuous food crises will be the new global norm unless the international community works together to find fair and sustainable solutions to tackle the root causes of global food insecurity,” conclude the Editorial.
Finding long-term solutions to the world food crisis
The Lancet (2008). 371[9622]: p. 1389.
Written by: Peter M Crosta