Modelling The Time - Dependent Transmission Rate For Porcine Circovirus Type 2 (PCV2) In Pigs Using Data From Serial Transmission Experiments

Main Category: Veterinary
Article Date: 18 Jun 2008 - 10:00 PDT

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The features of the infectious period for PCV2 inoculated pigs was assessed experimentally from the frequency of infected pigs in 6 susceptible groups mingled successively from 4 to 39 days post - inoculation with inoculated pigs.

The estimated time - dependent infectiousness was fitted to three function shapes (gamma, Weibull and lognormal) for sensitivity analysis.

The estimated time - dependent transmission rate was implemented in a deterministic SEIR model and validated with external data.

The lognormal - like function evidenced the best quality - of - fit leading to a latency of 8 days, a basic reproduction ratio of 5.9 [1.8,10.1] and a mean disease generation time of 18.4 days [18.2, 18.5].

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