New York Times Magazine Examines Europe's 'Lowest-Low Fertility' Phenomenon

Main Category: Fertility
Also Included In: Women's Health / Gynecology
Article Date: 02 Jul 2008 - 7:00 PDT

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The New York Times Magazine on Sunday examined reasons for low fertility rates in Europe, including the "lowest-low fertility" phenomenon in Southern and Eastern European countries. The lowest-low term was coined in a 2002 report that found fertility rates in Southern and Eastern Europe had dropped below 1.3 children per couple -- a rate that could reduce a country's population by 50% in 45 years.

According to the Times Magazine, fertility rates worldwide "have plummeted" -- from six children per couple worldwide in 1972 to 2.9 currently -- as populations move from rural regions to cities and people adopt "urban lifestyles." In Europe, the lowest-low phenomenon has occurred in both urban and rural areas. Cities such as Milan and Bologna, Italy, have recorded some of the lowest fertility rates in the world, due in part to the high cost of living, which forces couples to move or have fewer children. Other explanations that account for the drop in fertility in many countries include the increasing popularity of modern birth control; "virulent" social problems in Eastern Europe; and cultural practices in Italy, Spain and Greece that encourage children to live with their parents longer and have children later in life.

Some experts also have attributed the declining rates to the changing role of women, who now have greater opportunities for education and employment in many countries. Some countries have done a better job than others at "reconciling the conflicting forces" of women working in greater numbers and the demands of raising children, the Times Magazine reports. Those countries with greater gender equality -- such as Scandinavian countries that have some of the highest fertility rates on the continent -- have a "greater social commitment to day care and other institutional support for working women, which gives those women the possibility of having second or third children," the Times Magazine reports.

According to the Times Magazine, some experts say that the lowest-low phenomenon is "hard evidence of imminent disaster of unprecedented proportion," especially in economic terms. According to a report by Jonathan Grant and Stijn Hoorens of RAND Europe, "Demographers and economists foresee that 30 million Europeans of working age will 'disappear' by 2050. At the same time, retirement will be lasting decades as the number of people in their 80s and 90s increases dramatically." Grant and Hoorens argue that the crisis will become a "triple whammy of increasing demand on the welfare state and health care systems, with a decline in tax contributions from an ever-smaller work force." Alasdair Murray of CentreForum said, "The European population is declining, and I don't see that you can do much about that. But the real question is: How necessary is population growth to economic growth? I say not much" (Shorto, New York Times Magazine, 6/29).

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