Cancer Deaths To Double Over Next Two Decades

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Main Category: Cancer / Oncology
Also Included In: Smoking / Quit Smoking;  Obesity / Weight Loss / Fitness;  Public Health
Article Date: 10 Dec 2008 - 4:00 PDT

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Tobacco use and the spread of Westernized lifestyles are the two main factors pushing up cancer death figures in developing countries globally, according to a new report issued by IARC (International Agency for Research on Cancer). The Agency predicts that the total number of annual cancer deaths globally will double within the next twenty years.

By 2010, says IARC, the total number of worldwide cancer deaths will overtake cardiovascular and heart disease deaths.

According to the report:

-- In 2030 there will be 27 million new cases of cancer and 17 million cancer deaths. (In 2007 there were 12 new cancer cases and about 8 million cancer deaths.)

-- New cancer cases are expected to grow by 1% each year over the next two decades

-- The number of cancer deaths is expected to grow by 1% each year over the next two decades

-- The largest increase in new cancer cases and total annual cancer deaths are expected to rise the fastest in Russia, India and China.

-- Currently chronic infection is the leading cause of cancer in developing countries. Smoking, obesity, as well as other Western lifestyle factors will eventually become the leading causes of cancer in those countries within the next twenty years.

The global cancer burden doubled during the period 1975-2000. Experts say it will double again by 2020, and triple ten years after that. In 1970 only 15% of global cancers happened in developing countries - today over half of all cancers occur in developing countries. Two-thirds of all cancer deaths today happen in developing countries. This see-saw movement has not stopped yet.

The report indicates that the main reason the proportion of global cancer is growing in developing countries is smoking. As the number of smokers in developed countries fall, the opposite has happened in most of the rest of the world.

How can the burden of cancer be reduced?

Cancer can be reduced and controlled by implementing evidence-based strategies for cancer prevention, early detection of cancer and management of patients with cancer.

About one third of cancer could be prevented by modifying or avoiding key risk factors, according to a 2005 study by international cancer collaborators.

Important risk factors for cancer:

-- smoking
-- being overweight/obese
-- low fruit and vegetable intake
-- physical inactivity
-- alcohol consumption
-- sexually transmitted infections, such as HIV and HPV
-- urban air pollution
-- indoor smoke from household use of solid fuels

Detecting cancer early

According to the World Health Organization, approximately one third of the cancer burden could be decreased if cancer were detected and treated early. Early detection of cancer is based on the observation that treatment is more effective when cancer is detected earlier. The aim is to detect the cancer when it is localized (before metastasis).

-- What is the impact of cancer in your country? (WHO)

Written by Christian Nordqvist
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