New 1918-1919 Flu Pandemic Study Shows Death Rates In 14 European Countries

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Main Category: Swine Flu
Also Included In: Flu / Cold / SARS;  Infectious Diseases / Bacteria / Viruses;  Respiratory / Asthma
Article Date: 30 Apr 2009 - 9:00 PDT

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A new study carried out in France analyses the mortality rates in about 75% of the European population during the 1918-1919 flu pandemic (Spanish Flu). The study concludes that the virus probably did not originate in Europe.

You can find this study in the academic journal called Influenza and Other Respiratory Diseases, May issue.

The study found that the onset of the pandemic in each country happened pretty much at the same time, including in Spain, as did the peak which occurred in November 1918.

A team from INSERM, the French National Institute for Health and Medical Research carried out the study. It provides valuable background briefing for doctors and the media during the current pandemic alert.

The study highlights the following key facts:

• Overall, deaths rose by 86% in the 14 European nations studied during the Spanish Flu pandemic (1918-1919). 1.98 million excess deaths were recorded. If one extrapolates these figures to cover the 25% of Europe this study did not cover, the figure would have been 2.64 million.


• Excess mortality rates for each country covered by the INSERM analysis were: Bulgaria (102%), England and Wales (55%), Finland (33%), Sweden (74%), France (66%), Germany (73%), Italy (172%), Norway (65%), Denmark (58%), Portugal (102%), Scotland (57%), Spain (87%), Switzerland (69%) and the Netherlands (84%).


• The totals for the global death toll continue to be very inexact. According to a first American report in 1927 the main 1918-1919 wave was responsible for 21 million global deaths. A new estimate in 1991 placed the total at between 24.7 and 39.3 million. While another estimate in 2002 estimated that the total reached 100 million after taking into account poor data from a large part of the world.


• The researchers stress that the source of the 1918 pandemic remains unclear. A recent analysis of the 1918 H1N1 genome failed to pinpoint a specific location. Theories for possible sources range from Asia, the USA, Spain and a British army post in France in 1916.


• The first reported pandemic took place in 412 B.C. The first influenza pandemic that we know of happened in 1580. There have been 31 reported influenza pandemics since 1580 - examples being in 1889, 1900, 1918, 1957 and 1968. The 1918 pandemic killed the most people.


• Other useful background data in the study includes the start and finish dates of the pandemic outbreaks in the 14 nations covered, with graphs showing the peaks and troughs in each country.

Citation
Ansart et al.
"Mortality burden of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Europe."
Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 3(3), 99-106. (May 2009) .

Further information on Swine Flu

• See a Map Of H1N1 Outbreaks
• See our Mexico Swine Flu Blog

Written by Christian Nordqvist
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