World Health Organization officials are meeting today to discuss the world swine flu situation and are expected to decide to move the pandemic phase from 5 to 6, the highest alert level signifying the outbreaks have reached full global pandemic status, following a surge of confirmed cases in Australia.
On Monday, Australia reported an increase of more than 1,000 confirmed cases of H1N1 swine flu, mostly in the southern state of Victoria.
Under the WHO definition of pandemic phases, once the virus is spreading within the community in more than one WHO region, the level moves to phase 6, signalling that countries can start implementing their appropriate emergency pandemic response plans.
WHO influenza chief Keiji Fukuda said in Geneva on Tuesday that:
“We are getting really very close to knowing that we are in a pandemic situation.”
WHO director-general Margaret Chan said “on the surface of it, I think we are in phase 6,” reported the Associated Press.
But WHO officials are concerned that some countries may respond inappropriately to a move from phase 5 to phase 6.
The pandemic plans of many countries are extremely rigid because they were designed to respond to the much deadlier H5N1 avian flu, which is what everyone thought would the next pandemic. Under those plans nationwide measures like closing schools and restricting transportation will kick in, causing massive disruption and panic.
Chan spoke with health authority representatives from eight countries with large swine flu outbreaks on Wednesday to discuss whether the pandemic phase should be increased to 6. After that meeting the WHO announced there would be an emergency meeting of flu experts on Thursday, said the Associated Press.
Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London told The Independent that moving to phase 6 might trigger pandemic plans that are “too costly to justify”.
“Many of the plans were designed for bird flu or the kind of lethal flu virus that caused the 1918 pandemic. That kind of mortality would justify draconian actions,” said Ferguson.
“There’s a whole set of policy decisions that have to be considered,” he added.
Chile has also seen a steep rise in confirmed cases of H1N1 swine flu in the past week. The most recent WHO figures show that Chile’s total number of confirmed cases rose by 1,283 to 1,694, with a total of 2 deaths.
Outside of North America Chile and Australia have the largest numbers of cases, with Australia’s total reaching 1,224 in the latest WHO update.
It now appears that the virus has spread significantly in several countries south of the equator, where they are about to enter winter and their normal flu season.
According to the latest WHO update on Wednesday, there are now 27,737 confirmed cases of swine flu in 74 countries, including 141 deaths. Most of the deaths (106) have been in Mexico, where the outbreak first came to public attention. These figures are of lab-confirmed cases officially reported to WHO by countries that have signed up to the International Health Regulations (2005).
Source: Associated Press, WHO, The Independent.
Written by: Catharine Paddock, PhD