Energy-related CO2 emissions reached a record high in 2010, raising doubts that agreed limits on global warming will be achieved by 2020, according to the Paris-based international energy watchdog, the IEA.
In a statement issued on Monday, the International Energy Agency (IEA), an intergovernmental organization set up by wealthy OECD nations following the 1973 oil crisis, said the “prospect of limiting the global increase in temperature to 2ºC is getting bleaker”.
According to their latest estimates, 80% of the emissions anticipated from the power sector between now and 2020 are already “locked in” as they will come from power plants already in use or under construction.
Although there was a dip in 2009, caused by the global financial crisis, the IEA estimates that global CO2 emissions for 2010 rose to a record 30.5 Gigatonnes (Gt), the highest ever, and 5% higher than the 2008 figure of 29.3 Gt.
Broken down by fuel type, 44% of the the estimated CO2 emissions in 2010 came from coal, 36% from oil, and 20% from natural gas.
IEA’s Chief Economist, Dr Fatih Birol, who oversees the IEA’s annual flagship publication the World Energy Outlook, told the press that:
“This significant increase in CO2 emissions and the locking in of future emissions due to infrastructure investments represent a serious setback to our hopes of limiting the global rise in temperature to no more than 2ºC.”
2ºC is the target limit that world leaders agreed to at the United Nations climate change conference in Cancún, Mexico, in November and December 2010.
The agreement recognizes that this will require deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions.
This means that the long-term atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases must not exceed 450 parts per million of CO2-equivalent. This is only 5% higher than the estimated 430 ppm level of 2000.
In the 2010 issue of the World Energy Outlook, the IEA set out the energy pathway that would be consistent with staying inside this limit, called the “450 Scenario”.
Essentially this shows that in order to achieve the 2ºC target limit, the global energy-related emissions must not exceed 32 Gt, which means that the rise in total emissions for the next ten years must be smaller than it was for the period 2009-2010.
Birol said the latest estimates are “another wake up call”, and warn that we are “incredibly close” to the 2020 level already.
“Given the shrinking room for manoeuvre in 2020, unless bold and decisive decisions are made very soon, it will be extremely challenging to succeed in achieving this global goal agreed in Cancún,” she added.
The IEA statement recognizes that the challenge of improving and maintaining people’s quality of life while at the same time limiting CO2 emissions “has never been greater”.
The agency estimates that while in 2010 about 40% of global CO2 emissions came from OECD countries, they only accounted for 29% of emissions growth. This contrasts with non-OECD countries, led by China and India, who saw much greater increases in emissions, due to the accelerated growth of their economies.
But if you compare on a per head basis, the OECD countries emitted about 10 tonnes per person in 2009-2010, compared with only 5.8 tonnes in China and an even smaller 1.5 tonnes in India.
It doesn’t take much brainpower to work out that it will take an enormous “paradigm shift” to put the world on a different path to reach the 2020 target.
Lord Stern, author of the 2006 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, told BBC Radio 4’s Today program, that the 2020 target is “not impossible” but the “window for action is closing”.
If the global leaders who met in Cancún were to attain their promised goals, then in 2020, in ten years time, we would be at the same levels that we are now, he added.
He agreed that the IEA estimates were a “wake up call” and they show we are already slipping behind on the promises made in Cancún.
Sources: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook, BBC.
Written by: Catharine Paddock, PhD