As delegates from over 100 countries ended their three day conference in Geneva Switzerland, the World Bank said $1 billion will be needed to combat the current bird flu outbreak and make preparations for an impending human flu pandemic. While the World Health Organization said at least $500 million will be the cost of developing drugs and vaccines.

When delegates from over 100 countries get together for three days, it is quite an event to see ALL of them agree on one subject. Unfortunately, what they all agreed on was that a human flu pandemic will come.

What nobody is sure about is when the human pandemic will start, how virulent the mutated virus will be and where it will start. Some believe we are less than a year away, others say it will take longer. Initially, the focus was on South East Asia as the most likely place a human flu pandemic would start. All the 123 human infections and 62 deaths from bird flu have happened in South East Asia. Most of the 100 million birds that have died since 2003 died in South East Asia. However, the H5N1 bird flu strain, the one everyone is worried about, has spread as far as Europe. As birds continue to migrate the virus is expected to spread even further.

“What happens in China and Vietnam is not only going to effect China and Vietnam but will effect neighbouring countries, and I think, as has been demonstrated by the movement of the virus, ??.. Eastern Europe has been affected. We are quite concerned for those who have participated in the discussions, given the migratory paths of the birds, we’re quite concerned about Africa,” James Adams, vice President of World Bank, said.

The infected birds found in Europe have been migrating south from Siberia, where cases of bird flu have been found. Many of these birds are making their way to Africa.

At the moment the H5N1 bird flu strain does not infect a human easily – it is a difficult illness for people to catch. It spreads easily among birds. If it evolves (mutates) it could then easily infect humans and spread rapidly.

Written by: Christian Nordqvist
Editor: Medical News Today