Bird Flu Could Damage US Economy With $675 Billion Blow

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Main Category: Bird Flu / Avian Flu
Also Included In: Flu / Cold / SARS
Article Date: 09 Dec 2005 - 12:00 PDT

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According to US Senator Bill Frist, a bird flu (avian flu) pandemic could damage the US economy by as much as $675 billion. He was quoting details from the Congressional Budget Office.

Bill Frist said 30% of the US population might become infected. This might mean workers taking about three weeks off work. He also added that the study speculated a 2.5% death rate.

At the moment the death rate for bird flu infection (among humans) is about 50%. 70 people have so far died, all in Asia, and about 140 have become infected.

Frist added that much of the economic damage would be brought on by fear and confusion. He said it is vital to begin preparing a prescription and implementing a course of action today.

With a price tag of nearly 700 billion dollars on the US economy, this would mean a 5% fall in GDP (gross domestic product), said Frist.

President Bush is urging Congress to agree to a $7.1 billion allocation to prepare for the country's bird flu plan.

The fear and confusion a bird flu pandemic could cause is difficult to predict. Many people have written in to Medical News Today about this with question such as 'How many people just would not turn up to work out of fear, even if they were not infected?' and 'What would happen if strategic industry and transport workers stopped work in large numbers?'

Experts say it is only a question of time before the H5N1 bird flu virus strain (the lethal one) mutates and spreads easily among humans. The most likely way it will do this is by exchanging genetic material with a normal human flu virus (it would need to infect a person who has the normal human flu). If it could pick up, from the normal human flu virus, the ability to spread among humans, we would be facing a serious, global, human flu pandemic.

At the moment the bird flu virus does not spread easily among humans. Out of over 100 million birds that have died as a result of bird flu since 2003, only about 140 humans have become infected.

At the moment the only drug that offers infected patients some hope of survival is Tamiflu. It must be administered to the patient early on during infection. Tamiflu is not a vaccine, it is not preventative - it is taken after infection (it is an antiviral drug).

Written by: Christian Nordqvist
Editor: Medical News Today


Copyright: Medical News Today
Not to be reproduced without permission of Medical News Today

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