Will Current Flu Pandemic Measures Be Effective Enough?

Featured Article
Main Category: Bird Flu / Avian Flu
Also Included In: Public Health;  Aid / Disasters
Article Date: 27 Apr 2006 - 10:00 PDT

email to a friend   printer friendly   opinions  

Researchers from Imperial College London, John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and RTI International have predicted how a variety of interventions may affect the spread of a flu pandemic. The researchers used computer modelling to calculate the effectiveness of such measures as travel restrictions, closing schools and antiviral treatment.

You can read about this study in the journal Nature.

Professor Neil Ferguson, Imperial College London, UK, who led the study, said "The modelling shows there is no single magic bullet which can control a flu pandemic, but that a combination of interventions could be highly effective at reducing transmission, potentially saving many lives."

The researchers concluded that border restrictions may, at best, delay the spread by a few weeks. Only border restrictions that are over 99% effective may offer anything better. They also concluded that restricting domestic travel would have very limited impact.

According to the computer modelling, if a pandemic were to hit the UK, it would peak at about two or three months and be over at four months. Professor Ferguson said response speed is paramount.

The modelling also made these predictions:

-- Closing schools combined with antiviral treatment for sick people and those in the same household would halve the number of people getting ill.
Current plans are just to treat sick people with antivirals - not other household members

-- If people living in the same household as the sick person stayed at home, the impact would be even greater.

-- School closures would not reduce total number of people eventually getting sick by much. But it would slow the spread enough to give health care resources a better chance to cope. School closures could slow down the speed of the spread by as much as 40%.

-- Vaccines would need to be available within two months of the start of a pandemic. With current methods of manufacturing, the country needs to have a good stockpile.

-- Even if the vaccine were not a perfect match to the pandemic virus, having a good stockpile would significantly reduce the numbers of people getting sick.

-- A good stockpile means enough for 20% of the population

-- Children would need to be vaccinated within weeks of the start of a pandemic.

Source: www.imperial.ac.uk/P7726.htmbr>
Written by: Christian Nordqvist
Editor: Medical News Today
Copyright: Medical News Today
Not to be reproduced without permission of Medical News Today

• Additional
• References
• Citations