Is Bird Flu Just A Flash In The Pan?

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Main Category: Bird Flu / Avian Flu
Article Date: 15 May 2006 - 15:00 PDT

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In South-East Asia, where the first human cases of bird flu surfaced in 2003, not one human or chicken has become infected in 2006 so far. Does this mean the H5N1 hits chickens hard, then a smattering of humans, and finally just evaporates? Or, as is the case with a tropical storm when the eye passes over you - is it a lull?

The United Nations and the World Health Organisation are cautiously optimistic that the success stories of Thailand and Vietnam may be a sign of things to come in the rest of the world. Vietnam, which had the highest cases of human infection, like other areas of South East Asia, has had not animal or human cases so far this year. Thailand has also remained free this year so far.

The much feared migration from Africa to Europe did not bring with it a wave of H5N1 infection. Much like the millennium bug fear, everyone waited apprehensively, and nothing happened. Not one migratory bird from Africa has been found to carry the H5N1 bird flu virus strain when arriving in Europe - so far.

Over 100 people have died of bird flu infection since 2003. More than 200 million birds have also died - this number includes culled birds.

Scientists say the H5N1 strain will eventually mutate so that it can spread from human-to-human. When it manages to do so we could be facing a global flu pandemic. How serious the flu pandemic may be depends on the virulence of the mutated virus. If what is happening in South East Asia is anything to go by, and if it is not a lull, perhaps we have nothing to worry about.

The H5N1 could be abating in South East Asia for one of five reasons:

1 - Our strategies for dealing with and combating the spread of infection among humans and birds are working.
2 - The H5N1 is having a rest. It is a lull. There is more to come.
3 - It was all a flash in the pan. There was never any global threat.
4 - Some countries are guilty of a massive cover-up.
5 - There is much incompetence and we really don't have any idea what is really going on around the world.

-- If it is because of number 1, great. For once the world got together and did something properly.

-- If it is number 2, let's hope our current strategies can deal with what's coming.

-- If it is number 3, great. We have nothing to worry about.

Personally, I hope it is number 1, as it will restore my faith in humankind.

Written by: Christian Nordqvist
Editor: Medical News Today
Copyright: Medical News Today
Not to be reproduced without permission of Medical News Today

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