Impact Of Swine Flu Outbreak Difficult To Predict

Main Category: Swine Flu
Also Included In: Infectious Diseases / Bacteria / Viruses;  Flu / Cold / SARS
Article Date: 25 Apr 2009 - 1:00 PDT

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The current outbreak of swine flu in California and Texas recalls the discovery of a cluster of swine flu cases in New Jersey in 1976 that led to the mass immunization of Americans. According to Dr. George T. DiFerdinando, Jr., a physican epidemiologist and professor at the UMDNJ-School of Public Health, the reaction to current and past outbreaks points out what can go right and what can go wrong in the face of a potential epidemic.

"None of us can really predict exactly what the impact will be," DiFerdinando said "That is why public health officials constantly do surveillance to detect the presence of flu strains, and government devotes time and effort to isolating and identifying viruses. One of the lessons of history is that in the early days of an epidemic, public health officials may need to make potentially life and death decisions without the luxury of waiting weeks or months to gather and analyze evidence."

The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stated that the viruses in the current outbreak contain a combination of gene segments that "previously has not been reported among swine or human influenza viruses." The CDC also has identified concerns about possible human-to-human transmission and the potential ineffectiveness of this year's seasonal influenza vaccine against the new swine flu virus.

DiFerdinando, who also leads the New Jersey Center for Public Health Preparedness at the UMDNJ-School of Public Health, is available to discuss the potential impact of the swine flu outbreak and how viruses mutate to form new threats to public health.

The University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey (UMDNJ) is the nation's largest free-standing public health sciences university with nearly 5,700 students attending the state's three medical schools, its only dental school, a graduate school of biomedical sciences, a school of health related professions, a school of nursing and its only school of public health on five campuses. Annually, there are more than two million patient visits at UMDNJ facilities and faculty practices at campuses in Newark, New Brunswick/Piscataway, Scotch Plains, Camden and Stratford. UMDNJ operates University Hospital, a Level I Trauma Center in Newark, and University Behavioral HealthCare, a statewide mental health and addiction services network.

Source: University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey (UMDNJ)

Further information on Swine Flu

• See a Map Of H1N1 Outbreaks
• See our Mexico Swine Flu Blog

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