Bird Flu Pandemic inevitable, 7 million people could die, WHO

Main Category: Bird Flu / Avian Flu
Also Included In: Flu / Cold / SARS
Article Date: 27 Nov 2004 - 11:00 PDT


The World Health Organization is urging countries to prepare for an 'inevitable flu pandemic' it believes will probably come from a mutated bird flu virus. Dr Klaus Stohr, WHO Influenza Program Coordinator, says as many as seven million people could be killed.

Stohr is urging health ministries in Asian countries to prepare and take measures for a probable flu pandemic. Dr Stohr insists it is only a matter of time - we have gone beyond wondering whether there will be one, the stage now is trying to forecast 'when' a pandemic will hit.

Dr Stohr says the next pandemic will most likely come from a mutation of the bird (avian) flu virus. He said "Even with the best-case scenarios, the most optimistic scenarios, the pandemic will cause a public health emergency. There are estimates which would put the number of deaths in the range of between two and seven million."

The H5N1 bird flu strain, the most dangerous, has hit Thailand and Vietnam hard. Millions of poultry have had to be destroyed - 30 people have died.

The virus only kills humans who have close contact with infected poultry. The concern among health experts is that the virus could mutate and spread from human to human. If the virus were to infect a pig, the jump (mutation) from pig to human would be much more likely.

If the strain were to mutate and have the ability to spread among humans, nobody would be immune - the consequences could be catastrophic. According to Stohr, this could happen at any time.

WHO experts say that countries in Asia which have the weakest health systems are precisely the ones that need the most support as they are the most likely places to host the beginnings of a pandemic.

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