Trend towards later childbearing continues, UK

Main Category: Fertility
Article Date: 19 Dec 2004 - 16:00 PDT


Over the last two decades, fertility of women in their thirties and forties has increased while that of women in their twenties or younger has decreased, according to detailed statistics on births and fertility published today by the Office for National Statistics.

Except for women aged under 20, fertility increased in all age groups in 2003. The largest increases were for women aged 35- 39 and 40 and over, with increases of over 7 per cent for each of these age groups.

The average (mean) age of women giving birth continued its year- on-year increase to 29.4 years, while the average age for women at first birth reached 27.4 years.

Statistics on births in England and Wales for 2003 are published in the annual statistical report*

Birth statistics 2003.

An analysis of recent fertility trends features in the Winter issue of Population Trends**.

Other key births statistics for England and Wales include:

• There were 621,469 live births in 2003, an increase of 4.3 per cent on 2002, and the highest annual percentage rise since 1979.

*Birth statistics 2003
Series FM1 no.32
Available free on the National Statistics website:

target="_blank">http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=5768 **Population Trends 118 (Winter 2004)
The Stationery Office £21. ISBN 0 11 621726 X.
Available free on the National Statistics website:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=6303

-- If the 2003 patterns of fertility were to remain unchanged, as represented by the total fertility rate, then an average of 1.73 children would be born per woman, an increase of 4.8 per cent from the average of 1.65 children in 2002.

-- Over 41 per cent of births were outside marriage in 2003. Wales became the first constituent country of the UK where more than half of births were outside marriage.

-- Almost all Government Office Regions of England had an increase in the total fertility rate of over 4 per cent between 2002 and 2003. The exception was the North East, where the total fertility rate increased by only 2.5 per cent.

-- In 2003, the North East was the only Government Office Region to have more than 50 per cent of births outside marriage. It also had the highest teenage birth rate and lowest proportion of births to mothers born outside the UK.

-- Births to mothers born outside the UK accounted for 18.6 per cent of all births in 2003, more than 50 per cent higher than the proportion 10 years previously.

Population Trends 118 also contains new and up-to-date statistics and feature articles on population and demographic topics. In this issue there are statistics on population estimates and marital status estimates for England and Wales. Feature articles cover:

-- The main results from the new interim 2003-based national population projections compiled by the Government Actuary's Department.

-- Demographic issues facing those in Europe who measure population.

-- Demographic data needs for an ageing population.

Summaries of the main articles are:

Interim 2003-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries

by Chris Shaw, Government Actuary's Department.

This article presents the interim 2003-based national population projections. These were carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General of England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, using essentially the same underlying assumptions as for the previous 2002-based projections. The results of the 2003-based projection were released on 30 September 2004. The next full set of projections will be based on the mid-2004 estimated population.

Key results of the 2003-based projections include:

-- The UK population is projected to increase gradually from an estimated 59.6 million in 2003, passing 60 million in 2005, to reach 65.7 million by 2031, equivalent to an average annual rate of growth of 0.35 per cent. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2050 at nearly 67 million and then very gradually start to fall.

-- Of the projected 6.1 million increase in the UK population between 2003 and 2031, some 2.5 million (41 per cent) is projected natural increase (more births than deaths) while the remaining 3.6 million (59 per cent) is the assumed total number of net migrants.

-- The number of people of state pensionable age is projected to increase by 10.4 per cent from 11.0 million in 2003 to 12.2 million in 2010. Allowing for the change in women's state pension age, the population of pensionable age will then rise more slowly, reaching 12.5 million by 2020. A faster increase will then resume with the number over pensionable age reaching 15 million by 2031 and eventually peaking at nearly 18 million in about sixty years' time.

-- In 2003, there were 3.34 people of working age for every person of pensionable age. By 2010, this demographic support ratio will fall to 3.11. Allowing for the change in women's state pension age, it will then rise slightly to 2020 before declining quickly. After briefly stabilising around 2.30 in the 2040s, longer-term projections suggest a further slight fall to around 2.15 in the 2060s.

European wide issues in population statistics

by Judith Jones and Roma Chappell, ONS.

This article discusses the key issues facing those in Europe who measure population. The article broadly describes the current demographic position in Europe, focusing on the main demographic changes that are underway and that will influence the population in years to come. It considers the issues these trends raise for those who measure population and how population statistics systems will need to evolve in response.

Demographic data needs for an ageing population

by Cecilia Tomassini, ONS.

A consequence of population ageing is an increased need for demographic information on older people in order to develop policies to meet their needs. This article analyses key aspects of data collection on older people, including survey design and questions. It also examines critically the current range of UK and international data sources. Specifically, it looks at three areas where there is under-representation in some UK statistical sources: older people in institutions; the oldest old people; and older people from ethnic minorities.

BACKGROUND NOTES

1. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available from the press office.

2. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.  Crown copyright 2004.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/pop1204.pdf

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