Using a novel simulation approach based on national data from 2000-2004 and validated against 2005-2006 data, the study looked at future projections for the distribution of body mass index in the United States. The research explored statistics for many categories of Americans based on gender, age and race, seeking to discover which overweight groups were the most likely to have stable, rising or lower rates of weight.
Projections reveal that obesity rates across all age categories for the adult US population will remain stable for the next 10 years. That positive report, however, is contrasted to less positive projections indicating that the following groups of Americans may have rising rates of overweight:
- Black young adults (age 18-39 years)
- Children - mainly boys - (ages 6-9)
- Black children (10 and over)
Article: "Forecasting Distribution of Body Mass Index in the United States: Is There More Room for Growth?"