Can We Trust What A Model Predicts?

Main Category: Eye Health / Blindness
Article Date: 28 Jul 2010 - 3:00 PDT

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When advanced modeling methods are used to investigate the health economics of complex treatments, efforts must be made to make sure that the model outcomes are reliable.

Researchers at the University Eye Clinic in Maastricht developed a model that simulates the lives of glaucoma patients. With this model they aim to forecast the long-term efficiency of several treatment strategies for glaucoma to help decision making in clinical practice.

In their paper "Modelling complex treatment strategies: construction and validation of a discrete event simulation model for glaucoma" they explain the structure of their model, the derivation of their input parameters, and the outcomes of a series of validity checks of the final model.

The paper was co-authored by Aukje van Gestel, Johan Severens, Carroll Webers, Henny Beckers, Nomdo Jansonius and Jan Schouten.

"The more complex a model, the harder it is for an audience to understand what it is doing exactly" says Aukje van Gestel. "That is why it is important to show how the accuracy of the model estimates was tested. For example, we used the model to mimic studies in real glaucoma patients, and found that the model predictions were comparable to the outcomes of those studies.

This will be discussed in Value in Health, the official journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and outcomes Research.

Value in Health (ISSN 1098-3015) publishes papers, concepts, and ideas that advance the field of pharmacoeconomics and outcomes research and help health care leaders to make decisions that are solidly evidence-based. The journal is published bi-monthly and has a regular readership of over 4,000 clinicians, decision-makers, and researchers worldwide.

Source:
ISPOR

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