CDC And Medco Study Showed Americans Stockpiled Tamiflu Over Fears Of Avian Flu Pandemic

Main Category: Bird Flu / Avian Flu
Article Date: 18 Oct 2006 - 0:00 PDT

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Despite cautions to the contrary, news media reporting of avian flu and concerns about pandemic spread were followed by hoarding of the antiviral medication Tamiflu (R) (Oseltamivir) by Americans according to a collaborative study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Medco Health Solutions, Inc. (NYSE: MHS). The findings from the first national study of personal Tamiflu stockpiling were presented at the annual meeting of the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA).

The research reveals that the number of prescriptions filled for Tamiflu jumped more than 300 percent from 2004 to 2005 during the fall months when there was little or no influenza activity in the United States. Tamiflu prescriptions filled during September and October rose to 133.6 per 100,000 insured Medco enrollees in 2005, up from 27.3 prescriptions per 100,000 enrollees during that same time period in 2004. When extrapolated to the U.S. population, that's 305,000 more Tamiflu prescriptions filled in 2005 than would have been expected based on 2004 prescribing rates. The largest proportion of Tamiflu prescriptions filled in 2005 was by those categorized as the healthiest patients.

The investigation also found that the number of prescriptions written per doctor increased substantially. Since Tamiflu is recommended for use within 48 hours after flu symptoms appear and virtually no cases of the illness had been reported during this time period, it is likely that the medication was not prescribed to treat the flu; instead it was probably stockpiled by patients over fears of a possible bird flu outbreak. The rise in Tamiflu prescriptions also corresponded closely to increased media coverage of avian flu.

"The correlation between the heightened U.S. media coverage around Tamiflu and the prescription activity for the drug between September and November in 2005 is uncanny -- nearly a five-fold increase in prescribing rates among physicians occurred over this typically low influenza time period," said Dr. Robert Epstein, Medco's chief medical officer and co-author of the presentation.

Further findings of the study showed that among age groups, the highest prescription rates in 2005 were for persons aged 50-64 years, despite the fact that those 65 years and older experience more annual influenza disease; and there was a seven-fold increase in Tamiflu prescriptions for children under 18 from 2004 to 2005.

Another finding of the investigation revealed a correlation between a physician's years out of medical school and his or her rate of Tamiflu prescribing. Older, more experienced physicians, regardless of specialty, prescribed more Tamiflu than younger, more recently trained physicians.

Tamiflu in Brief

Tamiflu is an oral antiviral treatment, not a vaccine for influenza. The medicine can reduce the severity and duration of the illness if started within two days of the onset of flu symptoms. To prevent the flu, Tamiflu must be started within two days of the contact with someone who has the flu. When administered according to its approved dosage, Tamiflu delivers a 38 percent reduction in the severity of symptoms, a 67 percent reduction in secondary complications and a 37 percent reduction in the duration of the influenza illness. Tamiflu has been used by about 42 million people worldwide since its launch and mortality in patients taking Tamiflu both in adults and children is lower than in influenza patients who are not treated with Tamiflu. While laboratory studies have shown Tamiflu somewhat effective in treating avian flu, drug studies in humans are still needed to determine treatment efficacy and the best therapy regimen.

Pandemic Influenza

Three conditions must be met for a pandemic to occur: first a new influenza virus subtype must emerge for which there is little or no human immunity, second it must infect humans and cause illness, and third it must spread easily and continue without interruption among humans. In its current state, the H5N1 virus does not meet the third condition.

Government Action

Federal, state and local health agencies are making plans to prepare for, respond to, and contain an outbreak of pandemic flu. Actions include developing a national stockpile of antiviral drugs to help treat and control the spread of the disease should an outbreak occur; testing possible vaccines, preparing communities, business, and organizations for an influenza outbreak; and working with the World Health Organization (WHO) and other nations to help contain and detect outbreaks and providing current accurate information on pandemic flu issues at http://www.pandemicflu.gov.

About Medco

Medco Health Solutions, Inc. (NYSE: MHS) is the nation's leading pharmacy benefit manager based on its 2005 total net revenues of nearly $38 billion. Medco's prescription drug benefit programs are designed to drive down the cost of pharmacy health care for private and public employers, health plans, labor unions and government agencies of all sizes, and for individuals served by the Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Program. Medco's technologically advanced mail-order pharmacies and award-winning Internet pharmacy have been recognized for setting new industry benchmarks for pharmacy dispensing quality. Medco serves the needs of patients with complex conditions requiring sophisticated treatment through its specialty pharmacy operation, which became the nation's largest with the 2005 acquisition of Accredo Health, Incorporated. Medco is the highest-ranked pharmacy benefit manager on the 2006 Fortune 500 list. On the Net: http://www.medco.com.

This press release contains "forward-looking statements" as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause results to differ materially from those set forth in the statements. No forward-looking statement can be guaranteed, and actual results may differ materially from those projected. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Forward-looking statements in this press release should be evaluated together with the risks and uncertainties that affect our business, particularly those mentioned in the Risk Factors section of the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission

Medco Health Solutions, Inc
http://www.medco.com

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