Rising H5N1 'Bird Flu' High-Virulence Sequences Found By Replikins, Ltd.

Main Category: Bird Flu / Avian Flu
Article Date: 07 Nov 2006 - 0:00 PDT

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Replikins, Ltd. has completed a comprehensive quantitative analysis of H5N1 "bird flu" peptide sequences found in humans infected with H5N1 in the past nine years.

The data, obtained from public sources, included 1,455 complete sequences from human specimens. The company has found a continuous and statistically significant increase in the concentration of peptide sub-sequences (previously linked to epidemics) in the H5N1 virus over the past nine years, suggesting a heightened potential for an epidemic outbreak in humans. The replikin concentration in H5N1 has been found to rise steadily, by a factor of 2.5 over the period covered, from 1997 to 2006, from a mean count of 1.9 to the current count of 4.8 units per 100 amino acids (Replikin Count(TM)).

Over the period covered by the study, the mortality rate in human H5N1 cases has in fact also increased by a multiple (2.3 times), from 26 percent in 1997 to 60 percent in 2006, a rise comparable to the increase in the concentration of the replikin sub-sequences.

While a direct causal relationship has not yet been shown, each previous increase in the concentration of replikin protein sub-sequences in flu viruses has been associated with strain-specific influenza epidemics that have occurred in the great pandemics of the last century: in 1918, 1957 and 1968. The same structure of the replikin peptide sub-sequences in influenza now can be traced back from the present to 1917. This conserved structure may be a key to the design of synthetic vaccines whose composition would not have to be changed every year.

Using proprietary technology, Replikins, Ltd. has discovered and defined a group of virus protein sub-sequences - called replikins - which can be used to predict whether a virus is rapidly replicating and whether it is likely to spread.

Replikins, Ltd. has also developed software (FluForecast(R)) which can now detect and count these proteins, which may allow scientists to better predict outbreaks of viral epidemics including H5N1.

Such predictions have been made correctly in advance by the company for the last three "bird flu" (H5N1) outbreaks from 2002 to the present. Prior to this discovery, no protein or other biological phenomenon has been found to correlate directly and quantitatively with viral epidemics. As a result, researchers have had no means to predict if, and what strain of a given viral organism will become a public health threat.

The current concern over when or if there will be an avian flu epidemic in humans has drawn attention to the need for improved measures to help predict, prevent and prepare for emerging health threats.

Dr. Sam Bogoch, Founder of Replikins, Ltd. explained that the finding in human H5N1 virus is significant because, "Combined with the software that analyzes viral strains, we now - for the first time - have an objective quantitative means of determining the threat level of a virus."

"To our knowledge, there is no other product which provides this quantitative predictive information." In explaining how the Replikins proteins were identified, Dr. Bogoch, who also founded the Neurochemistry Laboratory at Harvard Medical School, said, "After discovering the relationship of the structure of the sub-sequence replikin peptides to rapid replication in other infectious organisms, we focused on the influenza virus, because the CDC has epidemiological data available going back nearly 100 years. We discovered that a consistent sub-sequence of peptides increased in concentration in all influenza virus outbreaks."

Replikins, Ltd.
http://www.replikins.com/

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