Researchers Developing Mathematical Models Predicting Spread Of Epidemics

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Article Date: 22 Dec 2007 - 0:00 PDT

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What does an epidemic look like? Researchers at Kansas State University are finding that it depends on what opportunities the disease has to spread.

An interdisciplinary team of K-State researchers is working on a project called Epicenter to develop mathematical models and simulation software that can predict how and where diseases spread. These epidemic models will offer data that can help researchers to evaluate multiple strategies to stop a disease from spreading.

Caterina Scoglio, associate professor of electrical and computer engineering, directs Epicenter with co-director Todd Easton, associate professor of industrial and manufacturing systems engineering.

epidemic imageOne goal of Epicenter's research is to develop software that will simulate where and when diseases will spread, whether among people, animals, plants or even among computers. What makes Epicenter's work different from the other modeling tools available is that this software will be designed to run on laptop or desktop computers.

Studying how diseases evolve in time is nothing new. Epicenter models let K-State researchers estimate the evolution of a disease not only over time, but also across space. Epicenter's researchers use a method in which people or places are represented by dots, and how people or places are connected is represented with lines. This generates a contact network. Because different people, places and their locations form different networks, they also form different shapes when graphed. Based upon the shape of the network, researchers will be able to predict the spread of disease.

"The basic models are multipurpose," Scoglio said. "When properly adapted, they will fit any specific disease. What is most important is trying to understand the impact of the contact network on the spread of the epidemic. This understanding contributes to help curtail infectious diseases, such as foot and mouth disease."

As an example, Phillip Schumm, K-State senior in electrical and computer engineering, Manhattan, modeled and simulated how disease could spread from one property to another on the Potawatomie Indian Reservation in Jackson County.

Each property was represented with a dot, and adjoining properties were connected with a line. Schumm was able to predict which properties would be affected and when. He will present a paper on the topic at the Bionetics 2007 conference Dec. 10-13 in Budapest, Hungary.

Properties are static, but people and animals move. That's why part of the Epicenter research is developing models that can simulate the ways in which people, animals and other mobile vectors interact and spread disease to one another. The models being developed with Epicenter could be used by public health agencies and others who develop emergency plans to deal with epidemics. However, Easton said that the expertise of researchers at K-State would be essential in using the models accurately.

"The goal is to be able to implement and test particular strategies on the simulation model," Easton said. "If a cattle disease breaks out, instead of stopping cattle from moving across a large portion of Kansas, maybe stopping the transfer of cattle in a certain critical region would contain the spread of the disease and be less disruptive to society."

Other K-State collaborators include Sanjoy Das, associate professor of electrical and computer engineering; Steve Dyer, professor of electrical and computer engineering; Karen Garrett, associate professor of plant pathology; Ronette Gehring, assistant professor of clinical sciences; Don Gruenbacher, head of the department of electrical and computer engineering; Justin Kastner, assistant professor of diagnostic medicine and pathobiology; Chris Lewis, associate professor of electrical and computer engineering; Bala Natarajan, assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering; Abbey Nutsch, assistant professor of animal sciences and industry; Pietro Poggi-Corradini, professor of mathematics; Walter Schumm, professor of family studies and human services; Steve Warren, associate professor of electrical and computer engineering; and Samantha Wisely, assistant professor of biology.

K-State alumnus Justin Dyer also contributed to the project. Dyer earned a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering in 2004 and a master's degree in electrical engineering in 2006. He received a National Science Foundation graduate research fellowship in 2005 for his work with the WiCom Group at K-State.

Kansas State University
9 Anderson Hall
Manhattan, KS 66506-0117
United States
http://www.k-state.edu

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