Global pharmaceutical sales are estimated to reach $880 billion for 2011, an increase of between 5% to 7% compared to 2010. The 2010 global pharmaceutical market is expected to have grown by between 4% and 5% compared to 2009. The 2011 forecast was made in a new report IMS Market Prognosis, by IMS Health Incorporated.
IMS Senior Vice President Murray Aitken, said:
While the overall market will appear to rebound somewhat in 2011, the underlying constraints to growth in developed markets are stronger than ever - including the impact of major patent expiries and payer mechanisms to limit drug spending. We expect the pharmerging markets to continue their rapid expansion next year and remain strong sources of growth, and also see the potential for several significant innovative treatment options that are becoming available for patients in areas that include metastatic melanoma, multiple sclerosis and acute coronary syndrome.
The IMS Market Prognosis takes into account macroeconomic conditions, varying levels of patient access, drug treatment options and their availability, and factors which influence prices.
The following highlights are included in this latest report:
- Varying growth rates for different types of countries - pharmaceutical growth is expected to progress at different rates, with 17 pharmerging countries expanding at between 15% and 17% next year to $170-180 million.
Many pharmerging countries are spending considerably more on healthcare. These countries are experiencing broader public and private healthcare funding, resulting in higher demand and access to medications.
China alone, currently the third largest pharmaceutical market, is expected to expand by 25% to 27% in 2011 to over $50 billion.
Developed nations - Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, Europe's five major markets, as well as Canada are estimated to expand by 1% to 3%. The Japanese market has a forecast of 5% to 7% growth. The world's largest market, the USA will most likely see growth of 3% to 5%, with pharmaceutical sales reaching between $320 and $330 billion.
- Shift to generics as patents expire - a large number of blockbusters will have reached the end of their patent lives by 2011, making way for generics. The report calculates that about $30 billion's worth of current sales will face generic competition. The authors stress that the largest impact of generic competition will probably be felt in the following year, in 2012.
- Measures to reduce expenditure - national governments worldwide are trying to bring down their drug bill in their drive towards budgetary control. This will have an impact on several markets next year. Countries, such as Canada and Spain have attained considerable discounts in generic prices relative to their branded counterparts - in these countries generic pharmacy rebates may be done away with. In an effort to deal with rising healthcare costs, health plans in the USA are increasing their use of pre-authorizations and cost sharing provisions.
- Growth in new drugs that meet areas of unmet need - next year, new medications, many of which are specialist pharmaceutical products, will most likely fulfill patients' unmet needs. This may have a considerable impact on the way some therapy areas are treated, such as stroke prevention, MS (multiple sclerosis), hepatitis C, melanoma, and breast cancer.
A growing number of patients will be accessing these medications as they enter the market.
In 2011, we will see the loss of exclusivity for some iconic brands and a promising new wave of innovation. It also will be a critical year for gauging how healthcare reform initiatives in key markets evolve and play out amid the expected macroeconomic recovery. For pharmaceutical manufacturers, an unrelenting focus on bringing distinct value to patients and health systems will be essential to navigating this dynamic market.
"Podcast of the 2011 Global Pharmaceutical Market Forecast"
Source: IMS Health Incorporated
Written by Christian Nordqvist