A new formula has been discovered to serve as a tool to predict childhood obesity in newborns, using simply obtained information, according to a study in the journal PLoS ONE

The research team, from Imperial College London, was aiming to help in the prevention of obesity, which they believe should start at birth. Their formula uses many well known factors in order to measure the risk of obesity.

Obesity is a global epidemic, and obesity in childhood can cause health issues such as heart disease and type 2 diabetes that can turn into lifelong problems.

The investigators primarily examined 4,032 Finnish children born in 1986, and later reviewed data from similar analyses in a group of 1,503 Italian children and 1,032 U.S. children. To produce predictive equations the authors looked at standard risk factors, such as:

  • parental BMI
  • maternal gestational weight gain
  • birth weight
  • behavior and social indicators

Risk factors have been established in the past, however, this is the first time these factors have been combined into one formula.

A previous study this year has identified two gene variants that increase the risk for childhood obesity. After careful analysis they narrowed a long list down to two, one close to the OLFM4 gene on chromosome 13, the other within the HOXB5 gene on chromosome 17, both showed strong connections to severe childhood obesity and high BMI as an adult.

A genetic predisposition does not guarantee a child will be obese, but it is a risk factor alongside environmental contributors, such as diet and lifestyle.

Lead author of the study, Prof Philippe Froguel from Imperial College London, said:

“The equation is based on data everyone can obtain from a newborn, and we found it can predict around 80% of obese children. Unfortunately, public prevention campaigns have been rather ineffective at preventing obesity in school-age children. Teaching parents about the dangers of overfeeding and bad nutritional habits at a young age would be much more effective. The message is simple. All at-risk children should be identified, monitored and given good advice, but this costs money.”

The researchers found that the cumulative risk factors predicting childhood obesity, adolescent obesity, and obesity in childhood that results in adolescent obesity, was strong in the group of Finnish children. The equation continued to remain accurate when used for the groups of kids from the United States and Italy.

The formula is now available as an online calculator.

The authors find these results encouraging and hope that this may be a way at-risk children and their families can actively prevent future obesity and a lifetime of weight problems.

Written by Kelly Fitzgerald