A UK government report estimates that by the year 2010 12 million adults plus 1 million kids in England will be obese if current trends continue.

The report, called Forecasting Obesity 2010 was prepared for the Department of Health to predict what levels of obesity in England would be in 2010 if current trends in obesity prevalence continue unchanged.

For this study, obesity for an adult means a person with a Body Mass Index Over 30. For a child it means a 2-15 year old whose BMI is over 95th centile.

The report found that in 2003 (adults means people 16 and over):

22% of men were obese
43% of men were overweight
35% of men were of ideal weight or underweight

23% of women were obese
33% of women were overweight
44% of women were of ideal weight or underweight

Estimates for obesity rates in 2010:

Men 28% – 33%
Women 28% – 31%

Girls (2-15 years old) 22%
Boys (2-15 years old) 19%

The report expects approximately one third of all English adults and one fifth of all children aged 2-15 to be obese in 2010. This will mean an increase in the number of patients suffering from type 2 diabetes, heart disease and cancer. The number of obese men will go up from the current 4 million to 7 million – for women the numbers are expected to go up from 4.7 million to 6 million.

English people are getting fatter because they are becoming less physically active and eating more junk food, says the report. It added that the obesity health bill for the National Health Service will go way beyond its present one billion pounds.

Tony Blair said a new fitness strategy is urgently needed for the country, and asked all government departments to work together on this.

Health campaigners urged the government to pass new laws banning the advertising of all junk food before 9pm. They said the ever-rising problem of overweight and obesity in England will place a massive burden on the National Health Service.

Although more boys than girls are currently obese, the report expects girls to overtake boys by 2010.

The report estimates that obesity among men will be similar throughout all socioeconomic classes. However, obesity prevalence among working class women is expected to be about 10% higher than for their middle-class counterparts in 2010.

It is expected that Yorkshire and the Humber (northern England) will have virtually double the obesity rates, when compared to London and the south-east of the country.

Health experts say England could be entering an era where children, for the first time in centuries, will have shorter life expectancies than their parents.

In a BBC interview, Patricia Hewitt, Health Secretary, said “We’ve already stepped in, but there’s only so much the government can do. People need to want to change their lifestyles and take responsibility for their health….With children heading back to school in September, these statistics should give parents food for thought on how to make their kids’ lifestyles healthier. We are intervening and helping to make a difference, but we want today’s figures to act as a stark reminder of the problem we and our children will face if we don’t act now and start making healthier lifestyle choices.”

As from last Monday, Britain has a Minister for Fitness, Caroline Flint. Her brief is to tackle obesity. Opposition MPs (Members of Parliament) called this move a gimmick to shift attention from the government’s failure to tackle the problem.

The government wants voluntary restrictions by TV advertisers. Health care professionals and many politicians say this half-measure is nowhere near enough to tackle the problem.

Over the last few years food manufacturers have lowered the levels of salt and sugar in foods and schools have taken measures to provide more nutricious meals. However, obesity carries on spreading relentlessly.

If current trends continue, England could be heading towards current US obesity rates by 2010.

— Forecasting obesity to 2010 – For the Department of Health

Written by: Christian Nordqvist
Editor: Medical News Today