At the moment AIDS is the fourth biggest killer, behind heart disease, stroke and respiratory infections. However, researchers with the World Health Organization, in a new report, predict that the current 2.8 million deaths each year could jump to 120 million within the next 25 years.

You can read about this in the Public Library of Science Medicine.

Heart disease, stroke, cancer and respiratory infections will continue to be major killers over the next thirty years, says the report. As people live longer, these non-infectious diseases will prevail.

Here are some details from the report:

1. Changes in Rankings for 15 Leading Causes of Death, 2002 and 2030 (Baseline Scenario)
Category Disease or Injury 2002 Rank 2030 Ranks Change in Rank

Within top 15

— Ischaemic heart disease
2002 Rank 1 2030 Rank 1 Rank Change 0
— Cerebrovascular disease
2002 Rank 2 2030 Rank 2 Rank Change 0
— Lower respiratory infections
2002 Rank 3 2030 Rank 5 Rank Change -2
— HIV/AIDS
2002 Rank 4 2030 Rank 3 Rank Change +1
— COPD
2002 Rank 5 2030 Rank 4 Rank Change +1
— Perinatal conditions
2002 Rank 6 2030 Rank 9 Rank Change -3
— Diarrhoeal diseases
2002 Rank 7 2030 Rank 16 Rank Change -9
— Tuberculosis
2002 Rank 8 2030 Rank 23 Rank Change -15
— Trachea, bronchus, lung cancers
2002 Rank 9 2030 Rank 6 Rank Change +3
— Road traffic accidents
2002 Rank 10 2030 Rank 8 Rank Change +2
— Diabetes mellitus
2002 Rank 11 2030 Rank 7 Rank Change +4
— Malaria
2002 Rank 12 2030 Rank 22 Rank Change -10
— Hypertensive heart disease
2002 Rank 13 2030 Rank 11 Rank Change +2
— Self-inflicted injuries
2002 Rank 14 2030 Rank 12 Rank Change +2
— Stomach cancer
2002 Rank 15 2030 Rank 10 Rank Change +5

Outside top 15

— Nephritis and nephrosis
2002 Rank 17 2030 Rank 13 Rank Change +4
— Colon and rectum cancers
2002 Rank 18 2030 Rank 15 Rank Change +3
— Liver cancers
2002 Rank 19 2030 Rank 14 Rank Change +5

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2. Projected Average Annual Rates of Change in Age-Standardized Death Rates for Selected Causes: World, 2002-2020
Average Annual Change (%) in Age-Standardized Death Rate

All Causes
Males -0.8% Females -1.1%

Group I
Males -1.4% Females -1.9%
— Tuberculosis
Males -5.4% Females -5.3%
— HIV/AIDS
Males +3.0% Females +2.1%
— Malaria
Males -1.3% Females -1.5
— Other infectious diseases
Males -3.4% Females -3.3%
— Respiratory infections
Males -2.%7 Females -3.4%
— Perinatal conditions
Males -1.7% Females -1.9%
— Other Group I
Males -3.0% Females -3.6%

Group II
Males 0.0% Females -0.8%
— Cancer
Males -0.2% Females -0.4%
— Lung cancer
Males +0.1% Females +0.3%
— Diabetes mellitus
Males +1.1% Females +1.3%
— Cardiovascular diseases
Males -1.1% Females -1.2%
— Respiratory diseases
Males +0.3% Females -0.1%
— Digestive diseases
Males -1.3% Females -1.7%
— Other Group II
Males -0.7% Females -1.1%

Group III
Males 0.0% Females -0.2%
— Unintentional injuries
Males -0.2% Females -0.2%
— Road traffic accidents
Males +1.1% Females +1.1%
— Intentional injuries
Males +0.2% Females -0.2%
— Self-inflicted injuries
Males -0.3% Females -0.4%
— Violence
Males +0.4% Females +0.2%

“Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030”
Colin D. Mathers, Dejan Loncar
PLOS Medicine
Click here to see article online

Written by: Christian Nordqvist
Editor: Medical News Today