A novel mathematical approach applied to model the ongoing Ebola outbreak, predicted the current fade out of the epidemic in Liberia almost to the exact date (early March). Using World Health Organization (WHO) data through December 21, 2014, the study that was published online in PLoS Currents Outbreaks, was the first to provide an accurate prediction for the epidemic containment.
The study represents an important step in the development of accurate computer-aided predictions of evolving epidemics. Predicting real-world epidemics as populations of individuals interact is extremely difficult. However, recent advances in mathematics and computer science have removed this barrier, at least to some extent. Siettos and colleagues applied these advances to real demographic data and constructed a detailed networked model that was used to predict the evolution of the Ebola epidemic in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Key epidemiological variables, such as the effective reproductive number and the structure of the contact transmission network, were monitored from the onset of the epidemic.
The proposed approach is promising for modern epidemiological research since it enhances our understanding of infectious diseases transmission dynamics and forecasting capability. Such state-of-the-art computer models can also aid the optimal design of public health strategies to combat epidemics, possibly through targeted and more effective control interventions. As Liberia released the last Ebola patient last Friday, these results are particularly encouraging and should allow scientists to be better prepared to combat new epidemics to come in the future.
Study: Modeling the 2014 Ebola Virus Epidemic - Agent-Based Simulations, Temporal Analysis and Future Predictions for Liberia and Sierra Leone, Constantinos Siettos, Cleo Anastassopoulou, Lucia Russo, Christos Grigoras, Eleftherios Mylonakis, PLoS Currents Outbreaks, doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.8d5984114855fc425e699e1a18cdc6c9, published 9 March 2015.