Avian Flu Pandemic Could Cost World 2 Trillion Dollars

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Main Category: Bird Flu / Avian Flu
Also Included In: Respiratory / Asthma;  Veterinary;  Public Health
Article Date: 18 Sep 2006 - 0:00 PDT

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The economic devastation caused by a bird flu pandemic could cost the world up 2 trillion dollars and at least 1 trillion dollars, according to The World Bank.

Jim Adams, Vice President, East Asia & Pacific's Avian Influenza Task Force, World Health Organization, said in Singapore that the economic threat is still real and remains substantial. He added that the previous estimated 800 billion dollar toll was a number that was basically pulled out of the sky - written on the back of an envelope.

Adams also said "But more recent financial modelling had revealed a sharper threat should the virus mutate and pass easily among people."

If this were really to happen, we would be talking about 3% of one year's global GNP (Gross National Product).

Adams said we urgently need to develop effective anti-bird flu progams worldwide, enhance health and veterinary services and improve public education and transparency. "We have been working in virtually all of the countries, developing countries, that have been affected by an avian flu outbreak, providing advice and financing in the development of projects to tackle the challenge."

WHO's avian flu coordinator, David Nabarro, said "The only difference between now and six months ago is not that the problem doesn't exist, it is perhaps headline writers have got used to it." He added that governments worldwide have generally responded well to bird flu and that donor nations and agencies should be pleased. He also pointed out that more funds are needed.

Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human H5N1 Cases Reported to WHO Since 2003

Azerbaijan
Cases 8
Deaths 5

Cambodia
Cases 6
Deaths 6

China
Cases 21
Death 14

Djibouti
Cases 1
Deaths 0

Egypt
Cases 14
Deaths 6

Indonesia
Cases 65 (46 this year)
Deaths 49 (37 this year)

Iraq
Cases 2
Deaths 2

Thailand (2 cases and 2 deaths this year)
Cases 24
Deaths 16

Turkey
Cases 12
Deaths 4

Viet Nam (None this year)
Cases 93
Deaths 42

Total
Cases 246
Deaths 144

Written by: Christian Nordqvist
Editor: Medical News Today
Copyright: Medical News Today
Not to be reproduced without permission of Medical News Today

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