Flu Pandemic Likely To Strike UK In The Autumn Says Expert

Featured Article
Main Category: Swine Flu
Also Included In: Flu / Cold / SARS;  Public Health;  Infectious Diseases / Bacteria / Viruses
Article Date: 01 Jun 2009 - 2:00 PDT

email to a friend   printer friendly   view / write opinions   rate article

A leading expert has warned that the UK can expect to be hit by a swine flu pandemic in the autumn when students go back to school and university.

John Oxford, professor of virology at St Bartholomew's (Barts) hospital in London said on Sunday that the outbreak will strike before a vaccine is available, reported the Guardian.

So far, the UK has seen a relatively low number of confirmed cases, but as the weather gets colder in September and October, and students go back to school and university, and workers return from summer holidays, this will give the swine flu virus the "opportunity" it needs, said Oxford.

"That's the scenario we should prepare for and that's what we are preparing for," he added.

According to figures released by the Health Protection Agency (HPA) on Sunday, the total number of confirmed cases of new H1N1 in the UK is 224, with the vast majority in England (225), followed by a much smaller number in Scotland (17), Wales (1) and Northern Ireland (1). Another 239 cases are also under investigation, said the HPA.

Oxford said the number of sporadic cases that are now unrelated to travel suggests the virus is spreading "silently" around the UK.

He said that people should carry on as normal and that he saw fighting the flu as being like defending a "medieval castle" with several layers of defence.

The "outer layer" is practising good hygiene, maintaining social distance and shielding people from coughs. If the virus gets through this layer, then we deploy antivirals like Tamiflu, and then the final layer is the vaccine.

"You chuck all of this at the virus; you can't stop it, but you can slow it down," he added.

However, a vaccine may not be ready until October or November, and will most likely only cover about 15 per cent of the population, warned Oxford, according to a Daily Mail report.

Oxford's warning came as the HPA wrote to parents of pupils at Eton that there are now 4 confirmed and a further 32 suspected cases of swine flu at the school.

The Berkshire school that Princes William and Harry went to and which boasts a total of 18 British prime ministers among its former pupils, closed for a week after a 13-year old pupil tested positive for the illness last Thursday.

According to a BBC News report, the letter said:

"In general these students have mild illness. It is highly likely that these will be positive for swine influenza."

Staff and pupils at the schools have been offered antiviral drugs. The school is closed until 7 June, although students taking exams will be able to do so under "controlled conditions".

The school with the most number of cases so far is Welford Primary School in Birmingham, with an outbreak of 76 cases, said the BBC yesterday.

Wales reported its first case of swine flu in a 31-year-old man from Caerphilly who is thought to have caught the virus on a recent trip to the US.

In Scotland, Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said two children aged 5 and 13 were among the latest confirmed cases. The older child is the son of a man who is critically ill with the virus, and the younger child also came into contact with the family.

A spokesman for the Department of Health said there was not yet evidence of "widespread community transmission" and that so far the UK has seen predominantly mild cases of infection.

"Our strategy to slow the spread of the disease appears to have been effective, and the UK's arrangements continue to ensure that we are well-placed to deal with this new infection," he told the BBC, but said it was right to prepare for a potential global pandemic.

Oxford said the World Health Organization (WHO) was right not to raise the status to global pandemic, and that they were waiting to see what happens in Australia and South Africa as these countries enter their flu season.

According to the latest figures released on 29 May, the WHO said 53 countries have officially reported 15,510 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection, including 99 deaths.

Sources: HPA, Guardian News, Daily Mail, BBC News, WHO.

Written by: Catharine Paddock, PhD


Copyright: Medical News Today
Not to be reproduced without permission of Medical News Today